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Risk landscape of Hannover Re

The risk landscape of Hannover Re encompasses:

  • technical risks in non-life and life and health reinsurance,
  • market risks,
  • credit risks,
  • operational risks and
  • other risks.

The specific risk characteristics and the principal monitoring and management mechanisms are described in the following sections.

Technical risks in non-life reinsurance

Risk management in non-life reinsurance is geared to the following strategic objectives:

  • We maximise our risk capacities in accordance with the parameters of the risk management system and make limited use of retrocessions to reduce volatility and conserve capital.
  • We steer the acceptance of risks systematically through our underwriting guidelines. We have confidence in the entrepreneurial abilities of our underwriters and grant them the most extensive possible powers.
  • We impose the highest requirements on the processing of product-related data. Excellent data quality, security and integrity are the key hallmarks of our service processes.
  • Given that the establishment of inadequate reserves constitutes our greatest risk, we take care to maintain a conservative reserving level.

We make a fundamental distinction between risks that result from business operations of past years (reserving risk) and those stemming from activities in the current or future years (price/premium risk). In the latter case, special importance attaches to the catastrophe risk.

As mentioned above, a significant technical risk is the reserving risk, i. e. the risk of under-reserving losses and the associated strain on the underwriting result. In order to counter this risk we calculate our loss reserves based on our own actuarial estimations and establish, where necessary, additional reserves supplementary to those posted by our cedants as well as the IBNR reserve for losses that have already occurred but have not yet been reported to us. Liability claims have a major influence on this reserve. The IBNR reserve is calculated on a differentiated basis according to risk categories and regions.

Licensed scientific simulation models, supplemented by the expertise of our own specialist departments, are used to assess our material catastrophe risks from natural hazards (especially earthquake, windstorm and flood). Furthermore, we establish the risk to our portfolio from various scenarios in the form of probability distributions. The monitoring of the risks resulting from natural hazards is rounded out by realistic extreme loss scenarios. Within the scope of this process, the Executive Board defines the risk appetite for natural perils once a year on the basis of the risk strategy by specifying the portion of the economic capital that is available to cover risks from natural perils. This is a key basis for our underwriting approach in this segment. As part of our holistic approach to risk management across business groups, we take into account numerous relevant scenarios and extreme scenarios, determine their effect on portfolio and performance data, evaluate them in relation to the planned figures and identify alternative courses of action. For the purposes of risk limitation, maximum amounts are also stipulated for various extreme loss scenarios and return periods in light of profitability criteria. Adherence to these limits is continuously verified by Group Risk Management. The Risk Committee, Executive Board and Non-Life Executive Committee are kept regularly updated on the degree of capacity utilisation.

The price/premium risk lies primarily in the possibility of a random claims realisation that diverges from the claims expectancy on which the premium calculation was based. Regular and independent reviews of the models used for treaty quotation as well as central and local underwriting guidelines are vital management components. In addition, Hannover Re’s regional and treaty departments prepare regular reports on the progress of their respective renewals. The reporting in this regard makes reference inter alia to significant changes in conditions, risks (such as inadequate premiums) as well as to emerging market opportunities and the strategy pursued in order to accomplish targets. The combined ratio is an important indicator when considering the profitability of reinsurance business.

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Development of combined and catastrophe loss ratio
in % Q1/2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 20051 20041 20031,2
1 Including financial reinsurance and specialty insurance
2 Based on US GAAP figures
3 Net share of the Hannover Re Group for natural catastrophes and other major claims in excess of EUR 10 million gross as a percentage of net premium earned
 
Combined ratio (non-life reinsurance) 94.0 95.8 104.3 98.2 96.6 95.4 99.7 100.8 112.8 97.2 96.0
Thereof catastrophe losses3 0.8 7.0 16.5 12.3 4.6 10.7 6.3 2.3 26.3 8.3 1.5
Development of combined and catastrophe loss ratio
in % Q1/2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 20051 20041 20031,2
1 Including financial reinsurance and specialty insurance
2 Based on US GAAP figures
3 Net share of the Hannover Re Group for natural catastrophes and other major claims in excess of EUR 10 million gross as a percentage of net premium earned
 
Combined ratio (non-life reinsurance) 94.0 95.8 104.3 98.2 96.6 95.4 99.7 100.8 112.8 97.2 96.0
Thereof catastrophe losses3 0.8 7.0 16.5 12.3 4.6 10.7 6.3 2.3 26.3 8.3 1.5

Technical risks in life and health reinsurance

Risk management in life and health reinsurance is geared to the following strategic objectives:

  • In order to be able to reliably meet future expectations arising out of our long-term customer relationships, we strive for a balanced mix of risks. Our risk management is concentrated on material risks, although we give consideration to all risks according to their significance.
  • We have confidence in the entrepreneurial abilities of our underwriters and grant them the most extensive possible powers. In our decentralised organisation we manage risks where they arise using a consistent approach in order to obtain an overall view of the risks in life and health reinsurance. Our underwriting guidelines provide underwriters with an appropriate framework for this purpose.

All risks directly connected with the life of an insured person are referred to as biometric risks (especially the miscalculation of mortality, life expectancy, morbidity and occupational disability); they constitute material risks for our company in the area of life and health reinsurance. Counterparty, lapse and catastrophe risks are also material since we additionally prefinance our cedants’ new business acquisition costs.

As in non-life reinsurance, the reserves are essentially calculated according to information provided by our clients and are also determined on the basis of secure biometric actuarial bases. Through our quality assurance measures we ensure that the reserves established by ceding companies in accordance with local accounting principles satisfy all requirements with respect to the calculation methods used and assumptions made (e. g. use of mortality and morbidity tables, assumptions regarding the lapse rate). New business is written in all regions in compliance with underwriting guidelines applicable worldwide, which set out detailed rules governing the type, quality, level and origin of risks. These global guidelines are revised annually and approved by the Executive Board. Special underwriting guidelines give due consideration to the particular features of individual markets. By monitoring compliance with these underwriting guidelines we minimise the risk of an inability to pay or deterioration in the financial status of cedants. Regular reviews and holistic analyses (e. g. with an eye to lapse risks) are carried out with respect to new business activities and the assumption of portfolios.

The interest rate risk, which in the primary sector is important in life business owing to the guarantees that are given, is of only minimal relevance to our company thanks to the structure of our contracts. The actuarial reports and documentation required by local regulators ensure that regular scrutiny also takes place on the level of the subsidiaries. The Market Consistent Embedded Value (MCEV) is a ratio used for the valuation of life insurance and reinsurance business; it is calculated as the present value of the future shareholders’ earnings from the worldwide life and health reinsurance portfolio plus the allocated capital. The calculation makes allowance as far as possible for all risks included in this business. The Market Consistent Embedded Value is established on the basis of the principles of the CFO Forum published in October 2009. We shall publish the MCEV for the 2012 financial year on our Internet website at the same time as the report on the first quarter of 2013.

Market risks

We pursue an investment policy in which the primary emphasis is on the stability of the generated return. With this in mind, our portfolio is guided by the principles of broad diversification and a balanced risk/return ratio. The most significant market price risks are share price, interest rate and currency risks.

The short-term loss probability measured as the “Value at Risk” (VaR) is another vital tool used for monitoring and managing market price risks. It is calculated on the basis of historical data, e. g. the volatility of the securities positions under own management and the correlation between these risks. As part of these calculations the decline in the fair value of our portfolio is simulated with a certain probability and within a certain period. The VaR determined in accordance with these principles specifies the decrease in the fair value of our securities portfolio under own management that with a probability of 95% will not be exceeded within ten trading days. A multifactor model is used to calculate the VaR indicators. It is based on time series of selected representative market parameters (equity prices, yield curves, spread curves, exchange rates, commodity prices and macro-economic variables). All asset positions are mapped on the level of individual positions within the multi-factor model; residual risks (e. g. market price risks that are not directly explained by the multi-factor model) can be determined through back-calculation and are incorporated into the overall calculation. Stress tests are conducted in order to be able to map extreme scenarios as well as normal market scenarios for the purpose of calculating the Value at Risk. In this context, the loss potentials for fair values and shareholders’ equity (before tax) are simulated on the basis of already occurred or notional extreme events.

Scenarios for changes in the fair value of material asset classes
in EUR million Scenario Portfolio change on a fair value basis Change in equity before tax
Equity securities Share prices -10% -2.9 -2.9
  Share prices -20% -5.9 -5.9
  Share prices +10% 2.9 2.9
  Share prices +20% 5.9 5.9
       
Fixed-income securities Yield increase
+50 basis points
-684.3 -536.6
  Yield increase
+100 basis points
-1,336.2 -1,047.4
  Yield decrease
-50 basis points
708.9 555.6
  Yield decrease
-100 basis points
1,448.7 1,135.9

Further significant risk management tools – along with various stress tests used to estimate the loss potential under extreme market conditions – include sensitivity and duration analyses and our asset/liability management (ALM).

Share price risks derive from the possibility of unfavourable changes in the value of equities, equity derivatives or equity index derivatives held in the portfolio. We have made such new investments only on a very modest scale as part of strategic participations. The scenarios for changes in equity prices consequently have only extremely slight implications for our portfolio. We spread the risks through systematic diversification.

The portfolio of fixed-income securities is exposed to the interest rate risk. Declining market yields lead to increases and rising market yields to decreases in the fair value of the fixedincome securities portfolio.

The credit spread risk should also be mentioned. The credit spread refers to the interest rate differential between a riskentailing bond and risk-free bond of the same quality. Changes in these risk premiums, which are observable on the market, result – analogously to changes in pure market yields – in changes in the fair values of the corresponding securities.

Currency risks are especially relevant if there is a currency imbalance between the technical liabilities and the assets. We reduce this risk through extensive matching of currency distributions on the assets and liabilities side. The short-term Value at Risk therefore does not include quantification of the currency risk. We regularly compare the liabilities per currency with the covering assets and optimise the currency coverage in light of relevant collateral conditions – such as different accounting requirements – by regrouping assets. Remaining currency surpluses are systematically quantified and monitored.

Real estate risks result from the possibility of unfavourable changes in the value of real estate held either directly or through fund units. They may be caused by a deterioration in particular qualities of a property or by a general downslide in market values (such as the US real estate crash). Real estate risks continued to grow in importance for our portfolio owing to our continuous involvement in this sector. We spread these risks through broadly diversified investments in high-quality markets of Germany, Europe as a whole and the United States. We use derivative financial instruments only to a very limited extent. The primary purpose of such financial instruments is to hedge against potentially adverse situations on capital markets. In 2012 we took out inflation swaps to hedge part of the inflation risks associated with the loss reserves in our technical account. In addition, as in the previous year, a modest portion of our cash flows from the insurance business was hedged using forward exchange transactions. Currency risks were also hedged using FX forwards in cases where currency matching could not be efficiently established. The contracts are concluded with reliable counterparties and for the most part collateralised on a daily basis so as to avoid credit risks associated with the use of such transactions. The remaining exposures are controlled according to the restrictive parameters set out in the investment guidelines.

Credit risks

The credit risk consists primarily of the risk of complete or partial failure of the counterparty and the associated default on payment.

Since the business that we accept is not always fully retained, but instead portions are retroceded as necessary, the credit risk is also material for our company in reinsurance transactions. Our retrocession partners are carefully selected and monitored in light of credit considerations in order to keep the risk as small as possible. This is also true of our broker relationships, which entail a risk inter alia through the potential loss of the premium paid by the cedant to the broker. We minimise these risks, inter alia, by reviewing all broker relationships with an eye to criteria such as the existence of professional indemnity insurance, payment performance and proper contract implementation. The credit status of retrocessionaires is continuously monitored. On the basis of this ongoing monitoring a Security Committee decides on measures where necessary to secure receivables that appear to be at risk of default. This process is supported by a Web-based risk management application, which specifies cession limits for the individual retrocessionaires participating in protection cover programmes and determines the capacities still available for short-, mediumand long-term business. Depending on the type and expected run-off duration of the reinsured business, the selection of reinsurers takes into account not only the minimum ratings of the rating agencies Standard & Poor’s and A. M. Best but also internal and external expert assessments (e. g. market information from brokers). Overall, retrocessions conserve our capital, stabilise and optimise our results and enable us to act on opportunities across a broader front, e. g. following a catastrophe loss event. Regular visits to our retrocessionaires give us a reliable overview of the market and put us in a position to respond quickly to capacity changes. Alongside traditional retrocessions in non-life reinsurance we also transfer risks to the capital market.

Yet credit risks are relevant to our investments and in life and health reinsurance, too, because we prefinance acquisition costs for our ceding companies. Our clients, retrocessionaires and broker relationships as well as our investments are therefore carefully evaluated and limited in light of credit considerations and are constantly monitored and controlled within the scope of our system of limits and thresholds.

In terms of the Hannover Re Group’s major companies, EUR 288.2 million (7.6%) of our accounts receivable from reinsurance business totalling EUR 3,783.3 million were older than 90 days as at the balance sheet date. The average default rate over the past three years was 0.09%.

Credit risks from investments may arise out of the risk of a failure to pay (interest and/or capital repayment) or a change in the credit status (rating downgrade) of issuers of securities. We attach equally vital importance to exceptionally broad diversification as we do to credit assessment conducted on the basis of the quality criteria set out in the investment guidelines. We measure credit risks in the first place using the standard market credit risk components, especially the probability of default and the potential amount of loss – making allowance for any collateral and the ranking of the individual instruments depending on their effect in each case. We then assess the credit risk first on the level of individual securities (issues) and in subsequent steps on a combined basis on the issuer level. In order to limit the risk of counterparty default we define various limits on the issuer and issue level as well as in the form of dedicated rating quotas. A comprehensive system of risk reporting ensures timely reporting to the functions entrusted with risk management.

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Rating structure of our fixed-income securities1
Rating classes Government bonds Securities issued by semi-governmental
entities 2
Corporate bonds Covered bonds/
asset-backed
securities
1 Securities held through investment funds are recognised pro rata with their corresponding individual ratings
2 Including government-guaranteed corporate bonds
  in % in EUR
million
in % in EUR
million
in % in EUR
million
in % in EUR
million
AAA 21.0 1,277.9 56.4 4,116.6 1.7 179.9 62.3 3,268.2
AA 63.5 3,859.9 40.4 2,944.7 14.0 1,487.9 17.1 897.3
A 9.7 587.6 2.7 197.6 49.1 5,224.5 10.4 544.5
BBB 4.7 287.2 0.5 38.9 29.3 3,116.3 6.2 323.1
< BBB 1.0 62.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 640.0 4.0 208.7
Total 100.0 6,074.7 100.0 7,297.7 100.0 10,648.7 100.0 5,241.8
Rating structure of our fixed-income securities1
Rating classes Government bonds Securities issued by semi-governmental
entities 2
Corporate bonds Covered bonds/
asset-backed
securities
1 Securities held through investment funds are recognised pro rata with their corresponding individual ratings
2 Including government-guaranteed corporate bonds
  in % in EUR
million
in % in EUR
million
in % in EUR
million
in % in EUR
million
AAA 21.0 1,277.9 56.4 4,116.6 1.7 179.9 62.3 3,268.2
AA 63.5 3,859.9 40.4 2,944.7 14.0 1,487.9 17.1 897.3
A 9.7 587.6 2.7 197.6 49.1 5,224.5 10.4 544.5
BBB 4.7 287.2 0.5 38.9 29.3 3,116.3 6.2 323.1
< BBB 1.0 62.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 640.0 4.0 208.7
Total 100.0 6,074.7 100.0 7,297.7 100.0 10,648.7 100.0 5,241.8

The measurement and monitoring mechanisms that have been put in place safeguard a prudent, broadly diversified investment strategy. This is reflected inter alia in the fact that within our portfolio of assets under own management the exposures to government bonds or instruments backed by sovereign guarantees issued by the so-called GIIPS states (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain) amount to altogether just EUR 70.0 million on a fair value basis. This corresponds to a proportion of 0.2%.

The individual countries account for the following shares: Spain EUR 31.0 million, Portugal 20.0 million and Italy 19.0 million. No impairments had to be taken on these holdings. Our portfolio does not contain any Irish government bonds; nor do we hold any bonds of Greek or Cypriot issuers. The breakdown into individual countries and specific exposures is shown in the following table.

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Fair values
      Corporate bonds    
in EUR million Government
bonds1
Securities
issued by semi-
governmental entities
Financial bonds Industrial bonds Covered bonds/
asset-backed
securities
Total
1 Including government-guaranteed corporate bonds (risk-oriented approach)
Greece - - - - - -
Ireland 0.0 - 0.9 20.5 89.0 110.4
Italy 19.0 - 61.0 84.7 171.3 336.0
Portugal 20.0 - - 0.8 8.1 28.9
Spain 26.2 4.8 46.2 96.2 179.6 353.1
Total 65.2 4.8 108.1 202.2 448.1 828.4
Fair values
      Corporate bonds    
in EUR million Government
bonds1
Securities
issued by semi-
governmental entities
Financial bonds Industrial bonds Covered bonds/
asset-backed
securities
Total
1 Including government-guaranteed corporate bonds (risk-oriented approach)
Greece - - - - - -
Ireland 0.0 - 0.9 20.5 89.0 110.4
Italy 19.0 - 61.0 84.7 171.3 336.0
Portugal 20.0 - - 0.8 8.1 28.9
Spain 26.2 4.8 46.2 96.2 179.6 353.1
Total 65.2 4.8 108.1 202.2 448.1 828.4

On a fair value basis EUR 3,443.7 million of the corporate bonds held by our company were issued by entities in the financial sector. Of this amount, EUR 2,860.1 million was attributable to banks. The vast majority of these bank bonds (69.8%) are rated “A” or better. Our investment portfolio under own management does not contain any written or issued credit default swaps.

Operational risks

Operational risks refer to the risk of losses occurring because of the inadequacy or failure of internal processes or as a result of events triggered by employee-related, system-induced or external factors. Operational risks are monitored primarily by way of appropriate process management. These risk potentials are evaluated inter alia on the basis of expert assessments and by means of scenario analyses. Such evaluations enable us to prioritise operational risks. When it comes to the monitoring of these risks, we attach special emphasis to the following individual risks.

Business process risks are associated with the risk of inadequate or deficient internal processes, e. g. as a consequence of poor data quality. Data quality is a critical success factor, especially in risk management, because all enterprise processes are based on the information made available. The overriding goal of our data quality management is to bring about sustainable improvement and to safeguard data quality, for example by way of regular data quality checks. In addition, as part of our process management, overarching and company-wide processes are continuously optimised and standardised. Compliance risks are associated with the risk of breaches of standards and requirements, non-compliance with which may entail lawsuits or official proceedings with not inconsiderable detrimental implications for business activities (e. g. tax, antitrust, embargo, data privacy or regulatory law). Upon suspicion of breaches of the law, our employees and business partners are able to report such suspicions anonymously using our electronic whistleblower system, which can be accessed through our website. These tips are brought to the attention of the Compliance Office, which is thus able to investigate the grounds for suspicion. Responsibilities within the compliance organisation are regulated and documented in a manual. The process is documented in regular compliance reports and complemented by training activities.

We transact primary insurance business that complements our reinsurance activities in selected market niches. In so doing, just as on the reinsurance side, we always work together with partners from the primary sector – such as insurance brokers and underwriting agencies. This gives rise to risks associated with such sales channels, although these are minimised through the careful selection of agencies, mandatory underwriting guidelines and regular checks.

Fraud risks refer to the risk of intentional violations of laws or regulations by members of staff (internal fraud) and/or by externals (external fraud). This risk is reduced by the processintegrated internal control system as well as by the audits conducted by Internal Auditing on a line-independent basis.

The proper functioning and competitiveness of Hannover Re can be attributed in large measure to the expertise and dedication of our staff. In order to minimise personnel risks, we pay special attention to the skills, experience and motivation of our employees and foster these qualities through outstanding personnel development and leadership activities. Regular employee surveys, the monitoring of turnover rates and the holding of exit interviews ensure that such risks are identified at an early stage and scope to take the necessary actions is created.

Information technology risks and information security risks arise, inter alia, out of the risk of the inadequate integrity, confidentiality or availability of systems and information. Losses and damage caused by unauthorised access to IT systems or by computer viruses, for example, pose a serious threat to Hannover Re. Given the broad spectrum of such risks, a diverse range of steering and monitoring measures and organisational standards have been put in place. Among other things, our employees are made more conscious of such security risks through practically oriented tools and training opportunities, e. g. with regard to the handling of personal data.

When it comes to reducing business interruption risks, the paramount objective is the quickest possible return to normal operations after a crisis, for example through implementation of existing contingency plans. Guided by internationally accepted standards, we have defined the basic framework conditions and – among other measures – we have assembled a crisis team to serve as a temporary body in the event of an emergency. The system is complemented by regular exercises and tests.

The partial or complete outsourcing of functions and/or services may give rise to associated risks. Regulatory and binding internal rules serve to minimise such risks. All risks associated with any instance of outsourcing must be identified, evaluated (e. g. by way of a performance assessment) and appropriately steered and controlled.

Other risks

Of material importance to our company in the category of other risks are primarily emerging risks, strategic risks, reputational risks and liquidity risks.

The hallmark of emerging risks is that the content of such risks cannot as yet be reliably assessed – especially on the underwriting side with respect to our treaty portfolio. Such risks evolve gradually from weak signals to unmistakable tendencies. It is therefore vital to detect these risks at an early stage and then determine their relevance. For the purpose of early detection we have developed an efficient process that spans divisions and lines of business and we have ensured its linkage to risk management. Operational implementation is handled by an expert working group assembled specially for this task. The analyses performed by this working group are used in order to pinpoint any necessary measures (e. g. the implementation of contractual exclusions or the development of new reinsurance products). By way of example, the risks arising out of the emergence of large cities and urban conurbations – so-called megacities – are analysed by this working group. The growth of such urban centres goes hand-in-hand with a host of different problems, including a growing demand for food, drinking water, energy and living space. These challenges may also have implications for our treaty portfolio – in the form not only of risks but also opportunities, e. g. through increased demand for reinsurance products. Climate change, nanotechnology, political unrest, amendments to laws and changes in regulatory requirements as well as pandemics may be cited as examples of other emerging risks.

Strategic risks derive from a possible imbalance between the corporate strategy and the constantly changing general business environment. Such an imbalance might be caused, for example, by incorrect strategic policy decisions, a failure to consistently implement the defined strategies and business plans or an incorrect allocation of resources. We therefore regularly review our corporate strategy in a multi-step procedure and adjust our processes and the resulting guidelines as and when required. We have defined performance criteria and indicators for the operational implementation of the strategic guidelines; these are authoritative when it comes to determining fulfilment of the various targets. With the “Strategy Cockpit” the Executive Board and responsible managers have at their disposal a strategy tool that assists them with the planning, elaboration and management of strategic objectives and measures and safeguards their overall perspective on the company and its strategic risks.

Reputational risks refer to the risk that the trust put in our company by clients, shareholders, employees or the public at large may be damaged. This risk has the potential to jeopardise the business foundation of the company. A good corporate reputation is therefore an indispensable prerequisite for our core business as a reinsurer. Loss of reputation may occur, for example, as a consequence of a data mishap or a case of fraud. We use a number of different practices to minimise this risk, including for example our set communication channels, a professional approach to corporate communications, tried and tested processes for defined crisis scenarios as well as our established Code of Conduct. Our rules governing the use of social networks (social media) as well as the principles defined in our sustainability strategy for conducting business in a responsible and sustainable manner round off this set of tools.

The liquidity risk refers to the risk of being unable to meet our financial obligations when they become due. The liquidity risk consists of the refinancing risk, i. e. the necessary cash cannot be obtained or can only be raised at increased costs, and the market liquidity risk, meaning that financial market transactions can only be completed at a poorer price than expected due to a lack of market liquidity. Core elements of the liquidity management of our investments are, in the first place, management of the maturity structure of our investments on the basis of the planned payment profiles arising out of our technical liabilities and, secondly, regular liquidity planning as well as the asset structure of the investments. Above and beyond the foreseeable payments, unexpected and exceptionally large payments may pose a threat to liquidity. Yet in reinsurance business significant events (major losses) are normally paid out after a lead time that can be reliably planned. As part of our liquidity management we have nevertheless defined asset holdings that have proven to be highly liquid – even in times of financial stress. In addition, we manage the liquidity of the portfolio through ongoing monitoring of the liquidity of the instruments contained therein; liquidity is verified on a monthly and ad hoc basis. These measures serve to effectively reduce the liquidity risk.

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